long-bets-kevin-kelly

Kevin Kelly has also already started a prediction based website. I’m glad somebody is giving people a chance to put their money where their mouths are on predictions.

I heard a guy on the radio say that Obama’s one visit to Rhode Island might be enough to put him over there. Sounded like nonsense to me, but why shouldn’t he say it when no one is ever going to call him on it later?

Anyway, predictions. Kelly and I both got interested in the question of evaluating people’s predictions, I guess. You may remember that I put a concept out there for a prediction based site in December. Are some people better at predicting things than others, can we measure it and do I have a better idea* than Kevin Kelly? You judge for yourself. Here’s my little concept (NOTE: The post has been lost, though it was only from December 2008) and here is his realized project, Long Bets.

* ThisTooWillPass.com recognizes that ideas are one thing and execution is much, much more. Granted.